In some ways the current pandemic restrictions have pushed forward the already emerging trends:
More Remote Work
For knowledge workers the ability to work from home has already largely been there. You already had a cell phone and a laptop. Your company has put in collaboration tools like Microsoft Teams, WebEx, and Zoom. Most of us already also had good high-speed broadband internet connections. In the past some of these tools were more for the convenience of the company. Can we reach you outside work hours to take care of a few things. The reverse was not always the case. We need to see you in the office otherwise how do we know your working. The pandemic lockdown ended up forcing the issue, and letting a lot more people work remote than they otherwise would have. There is no reason to believe this trend won’t continue. I believe when it all settles out we will see remote work as more the norm than it has been.
The concept of hoteling has been ongoing. Where office workers can schedule use of work spaces. The new office more setup for temporary cubicles and more focused on collaboration spaces. Really the point of the office should be about collaboration. So in the future expect office space to contract with more temporary and collaborative spaces and more workers working from home than in the office.
Even More E-Commerce
Retail has already been decimated by online commerce. Now we have forced people to shop online for a while, as there was no other option. Even as people can go back to stores and malls expect this change to continue. We are getting used to the convenience of just ordering and this trend will continue. Also we are seeing more hybrid retail with pickup services at groceries and other brick and mortar stores. The trend is here to change the way we shop. In some ways this is the change from retail to warehousing. You have already effectively been shopping in the warehouse with stores like Costco. Add pickup services can you start moving to a drive through warehouse for your shopping slowly the concept of the retail store starts to move away.
Life in the Next Pandemic
We will wind this pandemic down, but with our connected world new pandemics will happen. It could be in ten to one hundred years in the future. What does that look like with these trends. We assume for now that medical technology doesn’t advance, and we end up with a similar situation lockdowns, social distancing, and good handwashing until there are treatments or vaccines.
Initial Warnings
Big data gets more efficient worldwide reports to the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization are automated from electronic medical records. Expert systems find a trend of newly emerging disease in a country an automated alert system goes out to governments. In days, boots on the ground of doctors and researchers are in the effected area. The worst case scenario has happened. This disease like Covid-19 has a long incubation period with many asymptomatic carriers that can spread the disease. A local lockdown is done to help slow the spread, but the city also has a major international airport the disease has already escaped into the world.
Lockdowns Start
Researchers discover no good specific treatments for the disease. Technology has improved, but identifying good treatments and vaccines, will be at least six months in coming. Also it is looking like the lethality is in the range of ten to one hundred times that of the flu. A global lockdown is recommended.
Disruptions are Minimal
Knowledge workers barely notice. They have been working from home for the most part maybe coming into an office a few times a month. In person meeting are canceling and all move to collaboration software.
Factories slow down. Automation has increased since the last pandemics people are still needed but adding more personal protective equipment (PPE) and safety protocols maintain production at a slightly reduced rate.
Distribution and logistics keeps humming along. Warehousing has been changed by automation. So much of work is done by robotics. It is easier to maintain staff with safety precautions.
Boutique retail is hard hit but regular continues to hum along. Some of the necessities in the last pandemic have morphed into business as usual. People started to use online ordering, delivery, and pickup for safety reasons in the last pandemic, but now they have become commonplace and convenient. Conceptually there are already idea’s for a drive through supermarket. The concept here looks interesting but maybe overdesigned. I suspect a store with good online ordering and packaging. Picture a Costco with the checkouts replaced with a drive through lane and store acting even more as a warehouse and people and robots pick good for an orders.
Online and VR helps to work with the social dynamic. Once again there are mass cancellations in the real world for big events. Except they are not entirely canceled. Virtual conference and events replace some of these. One event even takes their social mixer to the next level partnering with large bar and restaurant chains to have mass delivery of food an drinks during the mixer, as you chat in the online space wine and cheese show up at your door.
On a smaller scale some restaurants and bars setup virtual cocktail and dinner parties, as you sit down in your home with friends. Food and drinks arrive at your door.
So in the future life goes on as before and we have created the technology to be more resilient and functional no matter what life throws at us.